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Guest Blogger: Can solar calm the coming storm?
Tom Cotter is a renewable energy evangelist, social entrepreneur, activist, trained presenter for the Climate Reality Project, and ordained minister. Professionally, Tom is Regional Sales Manager at Real Goods Solar. He is Chairman and President of the International Green Industry Hall of Fame and serves on the boards of both the Solar Living Institute and Restore Hetch Hetchy. You can learn more about Tom on his website, SolarTomCotter.
This article was originally published on November 9 on the Examiner.com.
This article was originally published on November 9 on the Examiner.com.
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| A screen-grab of the Hurricane Sandy Wind Map infographic taken at 10:26 AM 30 Oct 2012. The surface wind data in this beautiful wind map from Hint.fm (Fernanda Viegas and Martin Wattenberg) comes from the National Digital Forecast Database. |
Going solar is part of solving the climate disruption we are experiencing.
Though climate change failed to emerge as a topic during the 2012 presidential debates, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg did raise it in the final days before the election and in the wake of Hurrican Sandy's devastation, citing President Barack Obama's leadership on the issue as his reason for endorsing the president for a second term.
“Our climate is changing,” Bloomberg wrote for Bloomberg View. “And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it might be - given this week’s devastation - should compel all elected leaders to take immediate action.”
If the issue is indeed now on the table, the next question is what can we do to slow or reverse the effects of climate change?
Clean energy is a key part of the equation. Clean energy creates electricity by tapping into natural cycles and systems, turning the ever-present energy around us into usable forms while producing little or no pollution, including avoiding greenhouse gas emissions.
Out of the variety of clean energy sources, solar power, geothermal, ocean currents, wind, hydroelectric and biomass, solar is an obvious strong option, especially in California, where we typically have lots of sun.
According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, solar energy from the sun is a vast and inexhaustible resource around the globe. Just 20 days of sunshine contains more energy than the world’s entire supply of coal, oil, and natural gas.
In Fresno County, California, which suffers, even in good times, from more enduring high unemployment than the rest of the state and nation, solar is an even brighter spot.
Data from the California Solar Initiative (CSI) shows that solar growth over the past several years has primarily come from lower and middle income zip codes. With an average median zip code income of $43,000, Fresno County saw a 122 percent increase in CSI applications from 2007 to 2011.
In looking at what is going on across the country with solar jobs, the solar industry in the U.S. increased its workforce by 6.8 percent from August 2010 to August 2011, according Solar Energy Industry of America. That is a growth of nearly ten times faster than the overall economy.
More good news for Californians is the passing of Proposition 39, which is estimated to create 20,000 to 30,000 jobs for disadvantaged youth, veterans and others in clean energy projects and building efficiency retrofits. In closing a tax loophole that gave out-of-state corporations an unfair advantage over those based in-state, this change will increase annual state revenues by roughly $1 billion, with half - capped at $550 million - going to a new state Clean Energy Job Creation Fund for the first five years and the remainder going into the state’s general fund, according to the Yes on Prop 39 website. It accomplishes this without raising taxes on Californians.
Those are the kind of positive economic force the Valley can use. Jobs, lower energy costs and efficient buildings that are cheaper to operate are not only a win for residents, but also for our environment.
Scientists tell us that by continually dumping 90 million tons of pollution into the atmosphere every single day, we are altering the environment in which all storms develop. As the oceans and atmosphere continue to warm, storms are becoming more energetic and powerful. We are beginning to see the effects on humans from this atmospheric experiment.
The impacts of climate change can be daunting, even frightening. But we are not helpless. It is wise and prudent to increase our use of available and affordable clean forms of energy. These choices will reduce global warming pollution and help turn things around both now and for the future.
As this planet is the only home we have for now, we have an obligation to ourselves and to future generations to be responsible stewards.
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Seducing a fossil-fuel Frankenstein
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| Peter Boyle and Madeline Kahn |
"Promise you won't be angry?" says Igor.
"I won't be angry," says the doctor.
But this is classic Wilder. His hair is wild, love-interest Terri Garr is in the background semi-breathless. He will go nuts. After all, Igor's answer is "Abby Something, Abby Normal."
The result is classic. "Are you saying I put an abnormal brain into a 7 1/2-foot-long, 54-inch wide gorilla?" Wilder asks, grasping the earnest Igor by the neck and hefting him off the ground like a rag sidekick.
The U.S. energy industry has installed a series of protocols into its collective head that spew nothing but carbon. So far, solar has a long way to go, even though incremental advances appear to be made on a monthly basis.
Solar developments shine
A couple that come to mind involve a breakthrough by IBM researchers to squeeze more solar power out of cheaper materials and a move by the California Public Utilities Commission that could spur innovation in energy storage for alternative energy projects. Ulicia Wang of gigaom.com says IBM's solar cells made of easy-to-access copper, zinc, tin and sulfur onvert 11.1 percent of sunlight into electricity for a 10 percent gain. The material is important because it uses no rare earth elements, like indium and gallium, which can be difficult to source.
The CPUC in an August 2012 report, Resolution E-4522, gives kudos to three of five proposed solar projects in California that use molten salt to store energy and provide power after the sun goes down. Southern California Edison has requested approval of power purchase agreements for the projects, all developed by Oakland, Calif.-based BrightSource Energy Inc. Each has a 200 megawatt capacity and use mirrors to convert sunlight to heat.
However, the energy storage option earn high marks on the projects, strangely dubbed Siberian 1, Siberian 2 and Sonoran West. "These three projects compare favorably on a price and value basis," the report says.
That's substantial progress.
Carbon earthforms
But decades of domination by the oil industry have been a lot like a Peter Boyle character on the loose. Alternative energy developments are like throwing a bag of marbles at his feet in hopes he stumbles. Not a chance, really.
The fossil fuel industry is entombed in U.S. corporate culture. Just check out the new cars on the road. Maybe they're not as big as before the economic collapse, but they still burn gasoline. A major shift to solar-extracted hydrogen or full-on electric is about as likely as veganism being a part of an election-year GOP platform.
I'm at a loss for deducing a solution. I work at a job that chips away at the problem project by project. It makes me feel like I'm doing a part, just not very significant.
Seduce fossil Frankenstein
Maybe we need Madeline Kahn or somebody like her. She could seduce the monster (metaphorically embodied by Boyle in his greatest role after "Joe"). Where to find this person? Maybe an idea would get the public up in arms (pitchforks, torches, etc.).
Super cheap energy would work. Not natural gas, although granted it's a good bridge fuel.
Just a distraction really. The Frankenstein fossil fuel monster running amok could use a diversion. Madeline is pretty convincing in the Mel Brooks classic. Ideas?
Porterville schools install solar
The latest comes from the Porterville Unified School District, which is installing systems totaling 3.6 megawatts at five schools. The solar panels are expected to deliver up to $44 million in gross savings over the next 30 years and "are creating needed jobs during construction," say officials with San Jose-based SunPower, which is providing its California-manufactured panels to the projects.
At Monache High School, workers are installing SunPower panels on elevated trackers to maximize energy generation by following the sun.
"It's going to be a good thing in the long run," student Kyle Hicks tells ABC30 reporter Jessica Peres. Peres' story says the system at Porterville High will also shade cars in the parking lot as well as cut the school's $2.2 million utility bill in half.
Peres lists the project's total cost at $23 million.
A look on the California Public Utilities Commission website shows a half dozen projects on its July 2012 project status update. Three totalling 45 megawatts are in Kings County, 40 megawatts in Sonoma and Lake counties, 5 megawatts in Mendota and 21 megawatts in Blythe.
Solar Impulse electric plane flies into Madrid
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| Photo courtesy Altran Group. |
The 17-hour flight had some turbulence and challenges for pilot Bertrand Piccard, but nothing he couldn't handle.
"After flying towards Tangier and over the Strait of Gibraltar, the solar aircraft steered in the direction of Seville," officials said in a statement. "Because of strong crosswinds over the Iberian Peninsula, the pilot found a holding area west of Seville where he waited for the right moment to continue his journey towards Toledo."
The footage from news service EFEverde shows the Solar Impulse cruise silently in for a landing. Its lights illuminate the broad but lightweight frame something akin to a UFO.
"I hope that Europe will learn from Morocco’s example," Piccard says right after the flight. He's referring to the country's investment into solar infrastructure. "It’s precisely during times of global crisis that there needs to be an investment in renewable energies and energy savings, providing us with what’s necessary to sustain employment, purchasing power and a positive trade balance.
"Thank you Morocco for giving us the good example by building the world’s largest solar power plant."
The slow-moving plane has the wingspan of an Airbus A340 and 12,000 solar cells integrated into the wings to supply four electric motors. The solar cells also charge the 400kg lithium polymer batteries so it can fly at night.
Altran Group, an engineering company involved with the project, says the Solar Impulse team faces far greater challenges when it returns to home base. "The next major stages in the development of Solar Impulse are to cross the Atlantic then to fly around the world on-board a 2nd prototype, already under construction," Altran officials say.
Solar energy advances at rocket speed
Memos are just one thing that politicians don't get, but it could be true in the case of solar energy. Technology has advanced so fast and so far that policy makers and even utilities have been left behind. Many experts are working off outdated information and don't realize renewable energy is now cost competitive in many circumstances, according to this report from Bloomberg New Energy.
"...awareness of the current economics of solar power lags among many commentators, policy makers, energy users and even utilities," the report stated.
Authors attributed the lag to rapidly dropping prices of solar panels, ambiguous metrics used in the solar industry and persistent dissemination of outdated data - "occasionally by those with an interest in clouding the discussion," they say.
The authors also take issue with traditional metrics and messaging, such as "grid parity," which is used to describe the point where the cost of renewable energy matches other more traditional power sources. But the method is so yesterday, according to the authors, because, in part, it often compares a "retail technology to a wholesale price."
Bloomberg isn't the only group touting the attractiveness of renewable energy. Goldman Sachs put its money where its mouth is to the tune of $40 billion. Such an investment in clean technology isn't greenwashing, says Christopher Swann in Slate. As he says, "The Wall Street firm....is never far from the money."
Goldman Sachs is trying to capitalize on an emerging industry - one with many twists and turns. The Bloomberg report entitled, "Re-considering the Economics of Photovoltaic Power," suggested that obtaining an accurate accounting of industry shifts is difficult because prices change so fast, and because the supply chain and manufacturing process is complex.
A trip down memory lane
The authors give a brief history lesson on solar energy, and acknowledge that costs have generally exceeded other forms of power generation. But that was then; this is now:
"...With rapid cost reductions, a changing electricity industry context with regard to energy security and climate change concerns, increasing costs for some generation alternatives and a growing appreciation of the appropriate comparative metrics, PV‟s competitiveness is changing rapidly. As an example, large drops in solar module prices have helped spur record levels of deployment, which increased 54 percent over the previous year to 28.7 GW in 2011. This is ten times the new build level of 2007. "
Again, from the report: "Grid parity is now largely an outdated concept stemming from an industry that has traditionally been used to being an "underdog" of small scale, and constantly fighting for a "level playing field".
Clean energy is maturing, and in some ways repeating history. Technological changes aren't smooth. Just look at what is happening to the newspaper industry . The Bloomberg authors suggest the rapid changes in solar energy carry implications for policy makers designing new fiscal and supporting programs.
"The challenge is to elegantly transition PV from a highly promising and previously expensive option, to a highly competitive player in electricity industries around the world," they say.
Financing mechanisms evolving
Bloomberg New Energy also found, in another study, that the evolution of the industry is leading to new financing vehicles. It is moving toward a broader array of support. Read more here.
Bloomberg and its consultant on the study, Reznick Group, contend the broader support will help the industry keep growing. The new financing sources will replace traditional players, such as the federal government, who cut back. New players include pension funds, insurance companies, big corporate firms such as Google, and vehicles such as partnerships and programs akin to real estate investment trusts.
New financing methods. Falling costs. Technology improving.
Sounds like an industry on the move.
Clean energy marches toward maturity using traditional path
It's tempting to believe the political rhetoric over renewable energy and assume the industry is dying without ever grabbing a foothold. In reality, it is following a well-worn path traveled by emerging technologies for dozens of years.
A new report from the Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy at University of Tennessee compares the stutter-step progress of clean energy with that of the automobile and other industries. The report cites the Chief Strategist of Shell Oil as saying, "It takes about 30 years for any new energy source to attain 1% market share."
From the report: "Only in retrospect is technology change smooth. Within its own historical context, it is rough and uncertain with many false starts and byways. The social history of technology change is replete with stories of early technology adoption in unexpected niches. Often the early innovators are not the ones who profit from the process."
Consider the early days of automobiles and personal computers. the report notes that horseless carriages powered by electricity electricity, steam, or internal combustion engines came on the scene in the late 1800s, but 40 years later only 7.7% of American families had an automobile. Then, there was a spurt: "Only a decade later, in 1929, 60% of American families had autos," the report states.
Personal computers struggled through the same torturous path. The Altair kit for hobbyists appeared in 1967. Early commercial computers debuted a decade later with Apple II, the Pet 201 and Radio Shack's TRS-80.
I used a TRS-80, or Trash 80, in the early 1980s. I lived near Clear Lake in Northern California, and was a correspondent for the daily newspaper in Santa Rosa. I would write a story on the TRS-80 and then look for a phone booth. I attached the acoustic couplers to the phone, typed in some numbers, and heard the distinctive whine of the transmitted story.
Today, I don't think I can find TRS-80, acoustic couplers or even a phone booth.
Solar power has expanded at a 77% annual growth rate over the last five years, thanks in large part to generous incentives, cheaper PV and state renewable standards. Despite that, solar energy provided less than 0.1% of U.S. electrical demand in 2010, according to this report entitled "Sunshot Vision Study" by the U.S. Department of Energy.
However, the expansion could be substantial, the Sunshot report states, if prices drop, transmission capacity increases and other advances are made. Assuming prices of $1/watt (W) for utility-scale PV systems, $1.25/W for commercial rooftop and $1.50/W for residential rooftop, the penetration of solar power could reach 14% in the U.S. by 2030 and 27% by 2050.
An incentive to grow
The Baker study said incentives are most effective in young emerging industries such as clean energy, while subsidies in mature industries have the effect of suppressing the new technologies. "If the goal of incentives is to bring a resource to the point of full market penetration, one would expect larger incentives for fuels that have not reached maturity," the study said.
Incentives in mature industries (hello, oil) raise the overall cost of government incentives needed to expand new resources. From the Baker report: "From an economic development perspective, a portfolio of incentives weighted toward mature industries will tend to insulate and maintain those profitable industries and suppress new industries."
Incentives have certainly worked in clean energy. This New York Times editorial notes the robust return of clean energy, and suggests this is the wrong time to end subsidies. The goal, it says, should be to use incentives to "get (clean energy industries) to a point where they can stand on their own."
Just getting started
Clean energy is gaining a foothold in many places. College campuses, the U.S. military, professional sports and farmers are following in the footsteps of Big Business, which is increasingly realizing that sustainability also generates a green bottom line. See examples here.
Incentives helped forge a foothold, and, hopefully, it won't be long until clean energy, which includes energy efficiency, can stand on its own.
PlanetSolar, solar catamaran, finishes round-the-world trip
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| Raphael Domjan, left, and M. Immo Stroher |
Rather than circumnavigate the globe in 80 days like the unstoppable Jules Verne character, Domjan opted for a more leisurely pace -- about 6 knots at last look. But Domjan's trip is no less historic.
Domjan, a Swiss national trained as an electronics engineer and Jules Verne fan, joined with German businessman M. Immo Ströher to accomplish the feat in a solar-powered boat.
Their photovoltaic sheathed catamaran, PlanetSolar, plans to conclude its voyage after 584 days upon the high seas, cruising into the high-society port of Monaco on May 4, 2012. Aboard the PlanetSolar, most activity likely focused on journey's end, wrapping up the adventure with shore-based activities before letting the public get a look at the historic vessel.
Captain's log
In his daily logbook, Domjan writes: "Right after waking up, I go to the cockpit to take a look at the weather conditions. The weather is beautiful, clear blue sky, and snowy summits…it is perfect.
"Really, Nature has always helped us and provided us with its energy when we needed it… the planet and its power are really with us.
"(Captain) Patrick Marchesseau joined us this morning. The crew comprises now 5 members, our batteries are fully charged, and the weather forecast is looking good. We will leave Corsica tomorrow morning and begin our last navigation. Although we are all very happy about crossing the finish line tomorrow, we all share a feeling of nostalgia.
"See you tomorrow for our last solar navigation."
The PlanetSolar crew
Marchesseau, according to his PlanetSolar bio, is French and has been sailing on different cruise vessels since 1991. He was captain of the French cruise ship Le Ponant when it was kidnapped by Somali pirates in the Gulf of Aden in spring 2008.
The rest of the crew includes Captain/Master Erwann Le Rouzic who also started his career at sea in 1991 and has been sailing on different cruise vessels since 2001. His bio reads: "Parallel to his professional career, he pursued his passion for the sea on sailboats." The frenchman's resume includes French and international sailing races, including a 60-day trans-Atlantic crossing as skipper in 2002 and ocean voyage from Canary Islands to France.
Bosun (Boatswain) Jens Langwasser is German and, according to his bio, part of a long line of seafarers and sailors, constantly seeking success in yacht races. Jens trained at a shipyard in the German Baltic Sea port of Lübeck to become a boat builder. He headed up the construction team on PlanetSolar at the Knierim Yachtbau boatyard in Kiel, Germany, putting in 68,000 hours into the effort. He calls PlanetSolar "probably one of the most challenging and unusual projects we have ever had at the yard. After 16 months of intense work and thinking, the project turned into some kind of ‘special boat,’ a special creation."
Christian Ochsenbein, who is Swiss and an electrical engineer, served as chief of energy management, no small task when every kilowatt counts. According to his bio, he grew up in the Swiss city of Thun overlooking the Eiger Mountain. His father worked as a chief technician in the shipyard on Lake Thun. He's a champion swimmer, earning bronze twice in the breaststroke at the Swiss Championships.
The vision and future
Domjan and Stroher say they want their accomplishment "to demonstrate that a motor vessel can function from today without using any fossil fuel." They believe using solar power to travel undoubtedly has a commercial future.
"Our planet deserves a better, brighter and less polluted future," Domjan says on his site. "Future technologies must be keenly investigated and solutions must be found.
"The project will help to motivate engineers and scientists to develop innovative technologies, inspire people around the world and show that the impossible can become possible."
A new day dawns for solar energy
From the McKinsey web site: "McKinsey research indicates that the industry is suffering from growing pains rather than undergoing death throes. Solar is entering a period of maturation that, in just a few years, will probably lead to more stable and expansive growth for companies that can manage costs and innovate to tap rising demand from multiple customer segments."
Here's a link to the write-up, and also to an earlier blog that discusses the boom-and-bust cycle of clean energy and notes the industry is at a crossroad.
The report finds that falling prices will spur demand, even without subsidies, for five key markets: "off-grid, residential and commercial in areas with good and moderate sun conditions, isolated grids, peak capacity in growth markets, and new large-scale power plants."
Critics point to the implosion of Solyndra, companies downsizing, fights between solar developers and environmentalists, and other issues as an industry in disarray. But is it? Various reports say solar power will reach grid parity with traditional sources of power within a few years. GE says here that dropping solar prices combined with rising fuel prices will make solar energy cheaper than fossil fuels within five years.
Bloomberg here projects solar to be investment worthy in the U.S. by 2020. Banks could become moret than bit players, according to this post.
This post in Triple Pundit by sustainability consultant Leon Kaye suggests the industry "shakeout" will continue for at least a year, and shouldn't be viewed as a "meltdown," but rather as laying the foundation for expansion.
Think about it. Increasingly, volatile energy prices are playing havoc on budgets, and businesses are looking for some balance. Delta Air Lines is so desperate it is spending $150 million for its own oil refinery. The Washington Post has more here.
Closer to home, we in Fresno, CA., are seeing solar panels installed at wineries,schools, farms and on rooftops. Fresno is ranked 4th in the state in rooftop solar capacity, and dozens of solar arrays are proposed throughout the San Joaquin Valley, according to local planning officials.
Solar really makes sense here. The Valley is the nation's salad bowl, and the $25 billion agriculture industry consumes lots of power. So, it makes sense farmers want to reduce their bills and carbon footprints. Temperatures are high, power bills skyrocket during the I'm-going-to-spontaneously-combust-walking-to-my-car summers, the sun shines much of the year and the air quality is among the worst in the nation.
There are other uses for solar too. Did you know that oil and solar can mix?. Check out this about a California-based start-up, and this about Chevron and Bright Source Energy teaming up in an oil field in Fresno County. And I wonder if a nifty new mapping tool like this will spark a solar rooftop revolution.
"Revolution." That may not be too strong a word.
Image by Gabriella Fabbri
California's disadvantaged could get powered up with solar
Proposed legislation would require the installation of small-scale rooftop solar systems in areas that really need it - low-income and underserved neighborhoods in California.
Assembly bill 1990 by Paul Fong, D-Mountain View, would prompt the installation of 375 megawatts of generating capacity from small-scale renewable generation facilities. The goal is to "benefit the communities where electrical utility customers live, especially in the most impacted and disadvantaged communities with high unemployment that bear a disproportionate burden from air pollution, disease, and other impacts from the generation of electricity from the burning of fossil fuels," the legislation says.
375 megawatts of clean energy equates to removing about 50 passenger vehicles from the road annually. California Watch has more here.
Assembly bill 1990 by Paul Fong, D-Mountain View, would prompt the installation of 375 megawatts of generating capacity from small-scale renewable generation facilities. The goal is to "benefit the communities where electrical utility customers live, especially in the most impacted and disadvantaged communities with high unemployment that bear a disproportionate burden from air pollution, disease, and other impacts from the generation of electricity from the burning of fossil fuels," the legislation says.
375 megawatts of clean energy equates to removing about 50 passenger vehicles from the road annually. California Watch has more here.