Clean energy marches toward maturity using traditional path

It's tempting to believe the political rhetoric over renewable energy and assume the industry is dying without ever grabbing a foothold. In reality, it is following a well-worn path traveled by emerging technologies for dozens of years.

 A new report from the Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy at University of Tennessee compares the stutter-step progress of clean energy with that of the automobile and other industries. The report cites the Chief Strategist of Shell Oil as saying, "It takes about 30 years for any new energy source to attain 1% market share."

From the report: "Only in retrospect is technology change smooth. Within its own historical context, it is rough and uncertain with many false starts and byways. The social history of technology change is replete with stories of early technology adoption in unexpected niches. Often the early innovators are not the ones who profit from the process."

Consider the early days of automobiles and personal computers. the report notes that horseless carriages powered by electricity electricity, steam, or internal combustion engines came on the scene in the late 1800s, but 40 years later only 7.7% of American families had an automobile. Then, there was a spurt: "Only a decade later, in 1929, 60% of American families had autos," the report states.

Personal computers struggled through the same torturous path. The Altair kit for hobbyists appeared in 1967. Early commercial computers debuted a decade later with Apple II, the Pet 201 and Radio Shack's TRS-80.

I used a TRS-80, or Trash 80, in the early 1980s. I lived near Clear Lake in Northern California, and was a correspondent for the daily newspaper in Santa Rosa. I would write a story on the TRS-80 and then look for a phone booth. I attached the acoustic couplers to the phone, typed in some numbers, and heard the distinctive whine of the transmitted story.

Today, I don't think I can find TRS-80, acoustic couplers or even a phone booth.

Solar power has expanded at a 77% annual growth rate over the last five years, thanks in large part to generous incentives, cheaper PV and state renewable standards. Despite that, solar energy provided less than 0.1% of U.S. electrical demand in 2010, according to this report entitled "Sunshot Vision Study" by the U.S. Department of Energy.

However, the expansion could be substantial, the Sunshot report states, if prices drop, transmission capacity increases and other advances are made. Assuming prices of  $1/watt  (W) for utility-scale PV systems, $1.25/W for commercial rooftop  and $1.50/W for residential rooftop, the penetration of solar power could reach 14% in the U.S. by 2030 and 27% by 2050.

An incentive to grow

The Baker study said incentives are most effective in young emerging industries such as clean energy, while subsidies in mature industries have the effect of suppressing the new technologies. "If the goal of incentives is to bring a resource to the point of full market penetration, one would expect larger incentives for fuels that have not reached maturity," the study said.

Incentives in mature industries (hello, oil) raise the overall cost of government incentives needed to expand new resources. From the Baker report:  "From an economic development perspective, a portfolio of incentives weighted toward mature industries will tend to insulate and maintain those profitable industries and suppress new industries."

Incentives have certainly worked in clean energy. This New York Times editorial notes the robust return of clean energy, and suggests this is the wrong time to end subsidies. The goal, it says, should be to use incentives to "get (clean energy industries) to a point where they can stand on their own."

Just getting started

Clean energy is gaining a foothold in many places. College campuses, the U.S. military, professional sports and farmers are following in the footsteps of Big Business, which is increasingly realizing that sustainability also generates a green bottom line. See examples here.

Incentives helped forge a foothold, and, hopefully, it won't be long until clean energy, which includes energy efficiency, can stand on its own.

Tulare Wins Award For Sustainability Program

Tulare's commitment to preserving the environment earned the central San Joaquin Valley city an honorable mention at a recent sustainability showcase.

Tulare, with a population of 51,400, was one of six entities to be honored. Judges cited the city's extensive building retrofit and residential solar programs, the development of a 900-kilowatt fuel cell system, its 1 megawatt of solar power at the wastewater treatment plant and plans for a citywide climate action plan.

The California Sustainability Alliance, a program managed by Navigant Consulting, established the Sustainability Showcase awards in 2008 to recognize organizations and local governments that are leaders in clean energy and desire a low carbon future.

EAH Housing, which develops apartments for senior citizens and other low-income groups, also received an honorable mention for installing the largest multifamily solar project in the nation.

The winners were Balboa Park Cultural Partnership, which developed social and environmental metrics and programs at 26 cultural institutions around San Diego; Eden Housing of Hayward, which is committed to exceeding Title 24 energy-efficiency standards and to securing grants for retrofits at its properties; the city of Chula Vista, which imposed a comprehensive climate change protection program and reduced greenhouse gas emissions; and the Santa Clara Valley Water District, which has an award-winning water-use efficiency and and conservation program.

Tulare image from bandofneighbors.com

UC Merced Study: Higher Greenhouse Gases Could Alter Oceans

UC Merced, the newest University of California campus, is rapidly gaining cred for its research in, among other things, energy and the environment. As evidence, note a just-released study that concludes increased greenhouse gases could make oceans more acidic, and could profoundly affect marine life.

The study concludes that rising greenhouse gases, caused in part by the burning of fossil fuels and human activities, could alter nitrogen cycles in the ocean. Nitrogen is a vital nutrient for organisms, so the impact could be substantial. The result could be an altered food chain - and unknown consequences.

"There is growing concern about this issue because human activities are modifying ocean pH so rapidly," said UC Merced biologist and researcher Michael Beman. "While we do not know what the full effects of changing the nitrogen cycle will be, we performed experiments all over the world and believe that these changes will be global in extent."

The report stems from the latest research at UC Merced, which has recorded more than 50 breakthroughs and discoveries, including 16 inventions related to solar energy and 12 related to health research.

California Adopts Ambitious Cap And Trade Program

California regulators have approved an ambitious carbon-trading program in a move that some businesses fear will increase their costs, but also could be a potential revenue boon to the financially struggling state.

The 9-1 vote by the California Air Resources Board - at a packed meeting that featured climate skeptics with signs reading, "Global Warming: Science by Homer Simpson," according to Huffington Post - creates a complicated market for carbon credits effective in 2012. It allows big emitters, such as power plants, refiners and other industries, to buy carbon credits as a way to comply with mandatory emission cuts.

As the Wall Street Journal notes, the regulations come on the heels of the Cancun climate talks and six weeks after voters in California kept AB 32, the state's landmark climate law - of which cap and trade was a portion. Attempts to create a national cap and trade program have not been successful.

Supporters hope the California program will be a model for other states to follow.
There also is talk of linking it to cap and trade programs in New Mexico and Canada.

Air Resources Board Chair Mary Nichols said the state will create mechanisms to prevent manipulation of the carbon market, and wants a fund that uses carbon auction funds for energy-savings programs for low-income families.

The state plans to give away most of the carbon allowances in the first few years, but, by some estimates, $7 billion of revenue could eventually be created through a market. Here is a Los Angeles Times story that gives a good analysis of the program.

Meanwhile, manufacturers weren't necessarily keen on the whole thing, this San Diego Union-Tribune story notes. Here's a quote: "It will hurt manufacturers hard — raising costs on all types of energy,” warned Dorothy Rothrock, their lead negotiator on the issue for a business organization. “Manufacturers can’t pass along the costs of cap and trade when prices are set in global markets.”

There also is some speculation that the program could lead to rate increases.

Good or bad, the new regulation is an indication that California is serious about climate change.

"Billions of dollars are being poured into California in clean technology venture capital investment," Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said in the Wall Street Journal story. "Of course, we have to be sensitive because it's an economic downturn, and this Air Resources Board knows they have to be sensitive. But we have to reach our goals by 2020."

Photo by heatingoil.com

Cancun Talks End With Modest Resolutions

The final hours of the 12-day Cancun climate talks ended with what many media outlets, including The New York Times, describe as "modest" results.

"The agreement sets up a new fund to help poor countries adapt to climate changes, creates new mechanisms for transfer of clean energy technology, provides compensation for the preservation of tropical forests and strengthens the emissions reductions pledges that came out of the last United Nations climate change meeting in Copenhagen last year," The Times said.

The fate of Kyoto Protocol, which expired in 2012, was delayed until next year. But, as this Time article makes clear, there is now a formal commitment by big and emerging nations to make climate action transparent.

Not everyone approved. Bolivia's chief climate guy objected, saying the emissions reductions weren't enough, and actually pave the way for global temperatures to increase to the point where the most vulnerable nations are threatened.

Gretchen Weber of ClimateWatch was a little more upbeat, saying the pact sets the table for more discussions, and quotes Elliot Diringer, Vice President for International Strategies at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, as saying the talks were "the most tangible progress in the UN climate talks in years."

It "wasn't enough to save the climate," noted Alden Meyer of the Washington-based Union of Concerned Scientists in this CBC News piece. "But it did restore the credibility of the United Nations as a forum where progress can be made."

Photo: in reuters.com

Cancun Climate Talks Ebb, Flow In Final Hours

There are hints in the final hours of the Cancun climate conference that modest resolutions could result, but as of 5 p.m. no sweeping changes were in store. Even the issue that seemed to have the best shot at succeeding - protecting forests - appeared to be lagging.

A draft text over REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) has been prepared, but CNN is reporting a lackluster response to it, in part because some nations fear the specter of land grabs to capitalize on a proposed carbon market.

There is hope that feverish negotiations through the night will lead to accords on a proposed Green fund to help developing nations fight global warming, extension of the Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012 and emissions monitoring. Deadlocks had stalled progress, but late Friday afternoon there were hints of possible compromises on Kyoto and other aspects.

It could be that the 2010 conference will be best remembered for the rising profile of big business. Corporate America is flexing its muscles and taking a leadership role in climate change.

That could be good or bad, as this New Republic story points out. As the story suggests, if world leaders can't agree on how to cut carbon emissions, maybe business will.

The next few hours will tell the story of climate talks 2010.

(photo by climatechangesocialchange)

Corporate America Learns That Being Green Brings Pays

Does international supplier Ingersoll Rand know something that others don't?

It plans to hire 1,400 heating, ventilating and air conditioning specialists worldwide to cash in on what it sees as an emerging market for more energy-efficient buildings. "Climate solutions" is apparently the company's fastest-growing business segment.

Ingersoll Rand understands that energy efficiency makes sense, both economically and environmentally. Minimal investment can yield maximum returns as these examples show. Cutting power bills and redirecting that money into the pocketbooks of consumers and local governments is a big part of what we do here at the San Joaquin Valley Clean Energy Organization.

Ingersoll Rand, which sells everything from dead bolts to boilers, has made a major commitment toward conservation, cutting power costs $4 million through a federal program that uses employee volunteers to look for ways to decrease utility bills, according to this report.

It sent representatives to the United Nations 2010 climate talks in Cancun to spread the word of energy efficiency, telling participants that conservation is the biggest bang for the buck.

The talks were characterized, in part, by the emerging infuence of corporate America in clean energy and efficiency. Jeff Moe, director of global policy and advocacy for Ingersoll Rand's Center for Energy Efficiency and Sustainability, attended the conference and put it this way:

"Climate change in the form of rising sea levels, shifts in growing seasons and increase of extreme weather can impact the health and economic well-being...Understanding how today's technology can help offset energy usage, and associated greenhouse gas emissions, is paramount in managing the issue."

Ingersoll Rand gets it. Increasingly, other businesses are getting, and spreading, the message too. Walmart, Target, Proctor & Gamble, Coca-Cola, General Motors and General Electric are among businesses that have in recent months announced climate initiatives.

Google and other technology companies are making large investments in green energy. In fact, technology firms are well represented on Newsweek's 2010 list of greenest companies. If corporate America is on board, maybe the government will be next.

Cancun Talks Continue Behind-The-Scenes In Final Hours

The closed-door and behind-the-scenes negotiations that mark any summit such as the Cancun climate talks are reaching the urgency stage as the final hours near. The event ends Friday, and participants are eager to reach some sort of consensus - on anything.

It is ironic that talks on global warming are occurring when Cancun is suffering through temperatures that are at 100-year lows. In other irony, officials from the United States are anxious for some movement in climate control while back home in Washington D.C. legislators are waffling over whether to pull the plug on a Treasury grant program vital to producers of solar and wind energy.

The grant, which expires this month unless it is renewed, is responsible for about 1,100 solar and 200 wind-power projects, according to the Los Angeles Times. It was not included in the newly announced tentative tax deal, but new efforts to keep it are apparently making progress in the Senate, according to The Hill.

Still, efforts to formulate an international plan on climate change forge ahead in this Mexican resort. This Vancouver Sun story notes the current "delicate" phase of the talks involving representatives of some 200 nations, including China and the U.S., the world's two biggest emitters of emissions.

While negotiators - or Negotiators, with a capital "N," as this Washington Post story calls them - stay behind closed doors through the night, demonstrators are adding some spice to the event. Some of them represent local groups from Mexico that resent the international intrusion and don't want any resolutions from the talks. Others, as this KQED Climate Watch report says, are protesting inaction.

Business To Government: "Go Big Green"

One thing the Cancun climate talks is making clear is that big business and the military may have to take the lead in the fight against global warming.

Even the lure of a Mexican resort wasn't enough to entice as many government representatives as last year's event in Copenhagen. Jonathan Wootliff, in this account in Huffington Post, notes the "diminished" number of politicos and the beefed-up business contingent. The conference ends Friday.

Insurance companies and corporate leaders are sounding a common mantra: "Climate change is bad for business," Wootliff says in his article.

Mexican President Felipe Calderón emphasized the importance of the business community in developing climate change solutions, according to this report in Reuters. Business titans Richard Branson, Ted Turner, Walmart honcho Robson Walton and financier George Soros are at the climate confab, and Google Earth, which recently announced a $5 billion investment in a 350-mile undersea cable in the Atlantic Ocean, is also represented.

The business leaders are supporting a pact to decrease deforestation, while one of the reports released at the summit is entitled "Innovating for Green Growth: Drivers of Private Sector RE&D." It was released by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development."

The green growth report says businesses understand that an "unsustainable world is not a good place for doing business," and that "business is the main source of innovation, financing and solutions for the growth required. It must continue to play a strong role in the future climate regime."

The study talks about a "green race" between countries and companies, and suggests governments leverage research, development and demonstration to drive private-sector investments.

The report does not reference the military, but its influence can't be ignored. The U.S. Department of Defense recognizes the the need to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels and to conserve energy. It is bad foreign policy and leaves us vulnerable, according to this report.

Thus, the military is using its formidable resources to really go Big Green. If big business and the military recognize the importance of controlling climate change, then government ultimately has to fall in beside them.

Bigger Names Show Up at Cancun Climate Talks

Much of the most promising talk at the Cancun climate talks has focused on REDD instead of Green.

It's hard to tell from reports - this one says an accord is near but this one highlights some remaining issues - what the outcome will be, but it's clear that REDD, or "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation," is an important piece of the International climate conference in Mexico.

In fact, Chris Huhne, the UK Energy and Climate Change Secretary, is quoted in The Telegraph of London as saying REDD is a Green necessity.

“Success in cutting carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation will not just be a vital part of the fight against climate change; it will also be an important marker of success for the UN process itself,” he says in the article.

About 50,000 square miles of forest are cut down each year – the equivalent of the size of England – for timber or grazing land. It is estimated that deforestation accounts for about 20% of global greenhouse emissions.

Brazil is a leading advocate for preserving rain forests, but there are representatives of more than 190 nations in Cancun to frame an international plan for tackling global warming. The talks have been going slow, but were expected to gain urgency with the arrival this week of more high-powered officials. Those include Japan Environment Minister Ryu Matsumoto, Hugo Chávez, president of Venezuela, Rafael Correa, president of Ecuador, and Bolivia's Evo Morales.

Time magazine notes that this session, which is the 16th annual, attracted fewer participants and lower expectations. Some draft resolutions are on the table, but there hasn't been any resolution of the big issue - the extension of the Kyoto emissions Protocol, which expires in 2012. On the other hand, agreements at these kinds of conventions come toward the end, which is Friday.

Meanwhile, the two big dogs, China and the United States, are dancing around a plan to monitor emissions. China says it has ambitious volunteer goals to slash emissions, but, considering the amount of poverty in the nation, can't be held to legally binding standards. The United States has said it wants a commitment from China before it agrees to conditions.

photo by elenemigocomun.net